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Feb 24
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Shanghai Volkswagen

When people think of joint ventures ( JVs) in China, they often think first of Shanghai Volkswagen. It is one of the oldest JVs by a Western company in China, having been established in 1985; the Chinese partner was the Shanghai Automotive International Company (SAIC). As econd JV was established with First Automotive Works in 1987, in the city of Changchun. Between them, these two JVs gave Shanghai Volkswagen a powerful presence in the market.Growth was slow at first, as there were few roads, few petrol stations and few people with the disposable income to buy a private car.

Instead, Shanghai VW’s managers concentrated on two markets; government car fleets and taxis. They were highly successful in both cases. The red Volkswagen Santana became a feature of Shanghai’s streets, and there were sales in other cities too. In 2000 the Santanas were replaced by Passats, a European design but made locally in China by the joint ventures. In 2000, Shanghai VW manufactured 53 per cent of all the cars sold in China.

However, its very success in these fields became Shanghai VW’s undoing. The newly affluent middle classes in China could now afford private cars, and they did not want a brand that had associations with either taxis or the cars used by civil servants. It was estimated that by 2004 there were 60 million people in China with the means to buy and run a private car, and they were not buying Volkswagens. Other competitors were crowding in. General Motors launched a joint venture in Shanghai in 1997, and its Buick brand became popular almost at once. Honda, Toyota and Peugeot were also on the scene with joint ventures or subsidiaries of their own.

More critically, the domestic car industry was surging, and local brands like Chery, Lifan and Geely were cheaper than cars made by the joint ventures. Chery’s QQ micro-car, costing the equivalent of around $4,000, sawsales increase by 130 per cent in 2006. Altogether, the Chinese brands had taken 28 per cent of the market by 2006, and Japanese imports another 27 per cent. Meanwhile, Shanghai VW had seen its market share slide from over 50 per cent in 2000 to just 15 per cent in 2005.

In October 2005 Shanghai VW announced a programme aimed at recovering its old dominant position. The plan was to roll out at least ten new models, aimed specifically at Chinese consumers, with the first to go on show by the opening of the Beijing Olympics in 2008. At the same time there would be a radical shake-up of its cost structures and supply-chain operations, including re-negotiating the two JV contracts to reflect the realities of the new situation. In particular, Shanghai VW wanted its two JV partners to collaborate more closely with each other in order to achieve ‘synergy’. This was a very ambitious programme, and not all observers believed Shanghai VW could achieve its goals in the short time it had allowed itself.

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Feb 13
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Framing Effect

The framing effect, one of the cognitive biases, describes that presenting the same option in different formats can alter people’s decisions. Specifically, individuals have a tendency to select inconsistent choices, depending on whether the question is framed to concentrate on losses or gains.

(Source: Wikipedia)

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Feb 07
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Báo Người lao động cho biết 9 ngày đầu năm 2012 có 326 người không may mắn bị chết vì tai nạn giao thông. Đối với nhà báo, chắc phải ngạc nhiên, nên con số này mới xuất hiện trong một bản tin của báo.  Nhưng đối với những người bình tĩnh, vấn đề đặt ra là con số này có làm chúng ta ngạc nhiên không?

Ngạc nhiên hay không có thể trả lời qua lí giải thống kê.  Giả thuyết đặt ra là xu hướng tử vong vì tai nạn giao thông trong 9 ngày đầu năm Nhâm Thìn tương đương với số tử vong trung bình hàng năm.  Để kiểm định giả thuyết trên, chúng ta cần xem xét 2 nguồn dữ liệu: Con số tử vong trung bình cả năm, và con số tử vong “quan sát” được trong 9 ngày đầu năm.

Về dữ liệu thứ hai, theo báo chí, mỗi năm có trên 14,000 ca tử vong vì tai nạn giao thông ở Việt Nam.  Như vậy, tính trung bình, mỗi ngày có 14000/365 = 38 người tử vong (1).

Chúng ta đã có dữ liệu đầu: trong 9 ngày đầu năm, chúng ta quan sát được 326 ca tử vong (2).

Vấn đề đặt ra là số tử vong trong 9 ngày đầu năm có thật sự đáng ngạc nhiên.  Nếu tỉ lệ tử vong trung bình cả năm là 38/ngày, thì trong 9 ngày chúng ta kì vọng có 9 x 38 =  342 ca.  Nhưng trong thực tế, chúng ta quan sát 326 ca, tức thấp hơn trung bình. Do đó, con số 326 ca tử vong không có gì đáng ngạc nhiên trong tình trạng tai nạn giao thông hiện nay.

(Source: statistics.vn)

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Feb 03
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Mặc dù vậy, hầu hết tài sản của Zuckerbeg đều chỉ đang tồn tại trên giấy. Giống như cơn sốt dot-com xì hơi những năm 2000 từng minh chứng, cổ phiếu có thể trở thành giấy vụn trong chớp mắt nếu như giá trị thị trường của công ty lao dốc.

(Source: thongtincongnghe.com)

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Feb 02
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That’s how things are done around here.

That’s how things are done around here.

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Jan 15
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Photo of Albert Einstein’s office, taken the day he died

Photo of Albert Einstein’s office, taken the day he died

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Dec 09
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Dec 04
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Nov 23
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